BETTING AND INDEBTEDNESS: THE RISK OF BLAMING A SINGLE INSTRUMENT

When an orchestra is out of tune, blaming a single instrument may be tempting, but it rarely explains the problem. Something similar occurs with Brazilian household debt. Fixed-odds betting has come to occupy a central position in this debate. Indeed, it is legitimate to investigate its impacts, particularly on consumers considered vulnerable. However, the problem begins when a possible relationship is presented as a sufficient explanation for an older and more complex phenomenon.

What stands out, and prompted this article, is the oversimplification that various political, economic, media and social actors are applying to Brazilian household debt and the national economy. Brazil has previously recorded worse economic indicators, such as higher unemployment rates, high inflation and other phenomena. However, attributing the current over-indebtedness problem to a single factor is not only cruel and far removed from reality, but also dangerous. 

In fact, Brazil was already experiencing high levels of household debt long before licensed operators began operating in January 2025. The data are clear: in November 2022, 78.9% of households were in debt, with credit card debt accounting for 86.4%. In June 2024, the rate was 78.8%, and credit cards accounted for 86.4% of debt. High interest rates, personal loans, overdrafts, committed income and recurring credit card use were therefore already putting pressure on household budgets long before operators gained ground.

This scenario remains challenging. The Comsefaz bulletin indicates that the combination of debt accumulated in previous years, persistently high interest rates and the continued use of higher-cost forms of credit—such as revolving credit card debt—helps explain the rise in delinquency in early 2026. Banco Central data reinforce this diagnosis: in May 2026, the delinquency rate on non-earmarked household credit reached 7.6%, while the average interest rate for this type of credit soared to 62.8% per year. Furthermore, revolving credit card debt continues to account for 84.7% of household debt.

This does not eliminate the need to analyze the betting market. According to a Paag study involving 26 licensed operators (approximately 30% of the regulated market), 74% of transactions in the second quarter of 2026 were for amounts of up to R$ 50 and accounted for 23% of the total amount wagered. At the other end of the spectrum, bets above R$ 1,000 represented less than 1% of transactions but accounted for 20% of the total amount. It is worth noting that during the 2026 World Cup, 6% of Brazilian adults bet on tournament matches. Among them, 37% reported a positive balance, 15% said they neither won nor lost, and 48% said they lost money.

There is still one instrument missing from this orchestra: the illegal market. Estimates indicate that a significant share of betting in Brazil takes place outside the licensed environment (38% to 44%), and many consumers cannot even distinguish a licensed platform from an illegal one. This information matters when discussing financial vulnerability, given that unlicensed platforms, by definition, are not subject to the oversight and bettor protection requirements imposed on the regulated market.

Gaming and betting cannot be considered neutral elements in this scenario. For some consumers, recurring losses and problem gambling may exacerbate financial vulnerabilities. For this reason, the public response must target the risks, that is, identify problematic behaviors, enforce the prohibition on the use of credit, improve spending and loss limits, strengthen self-exclusion mechanisms, and expand prevention efforts and referrals for specific treatment. 

The pursuit of economic stability, improvements in health and education indicators, as well as the implementation of public inclusion policies, is a duty of the State and a right of the population. An analysis of the facts and circumstances that prevent or delay their implementation is necessary, but it must be conducted seriously, impartially and across multiple sectors. Attributing the cause of all problems to a single activity does not seem fair.

As in an orchestra, correcting a lack of harmony requires listening to the ensemble. Addressing household debt requires distinguishing correlation from causation and taking action on interest rates, the cost of credit, income, delinquency and risky betting behaviors, without ignoring any of them and without making just one of them the culprit.

Vivian Graminho

PhD in Law from UFRGS; Project Director at Labsul.